Field Note: Lines on the Water
In early 2023, a U.S. shipping firm asked me to take a look at an opportunity they were exploring in Venezuela. It was a moment when the sanctions posture was shifting just enough to create interest but not enough to provide certainty. Chevron had a narrow license. Everyone else was working from a mix of official guidance, political signals, and industry speculation. The surface looked calm. The currents underneath did not.
My first task was to build a geopolitical assessment. Not the kind built from familiar summaries or broad country profiles, but something the executives could use to make practical decisions. I looked at three layers. The formal environment, which defined the legal and regulatory boundaries. The practical environment, which included the internal dynamics inside the state-run energy company and the local and regional actors who influenced it. And the human environment, which was about the credibility, alignment, and intentions of the people involved.
The aim was not to predict where things were heading but to show where the picture was stable and where it was shifting. When executives understand the difference, they move with more confidence and make fewer assumptions.
Once the report was complete, they decided to travel to Caracas to see the opportunity firsthand. They asked me to support the movement planning. On paper it is logistics. In practice it is about reducing friction and uncertainty. You choose air movements that allow for adjustments if plans change. You select hotels that remove avoidable complications. You work with drivers who understand the environment in a way that does not draw attention. You create a schedule that respects both the culture of the place and the rhythm of the day. None of this is dramatic. If it works, no one notices.
The trip came and went without issue. The meetings were productive. They returned with a clearer view of the opportunity and the constraints around it. Nothing surprising happened, which is the best measure of effective preparation. The absence of surprise is rarely accidental.
What stood out from the project was the discipline in their approach. They did not travel to confirm a conclusion. They traveled to clarify one. They were comfortable holding questions open until the answers were earned. In environments shaped by politics, sanctions, and shifting influence, that kind of patience is often the difference between a good decision and a preventable mistake.
Preparation is not about removing uncertainty. It is about defining it well enough that you do not commit before the picture is complete. The work gave them the room to slow down, to see which parts of the opportunity were real and which parts needed time, and to make a decision grounded in what was known rather than what was hoped for.
On the water, lines look straight from above even when the currents are moving beneath them. The work is understanding the difference before you turn the wheel.
